Startup Business Analyst Market Opportunity

# Market Opportunity Analysis

Generate a comprehensive market opportunity analysis for a startup, including Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) calculations using both bottom-up and top-down methodologies.

Use this skill when

- Working on market opportunity analysis tasks or workflows

- Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for market opportunity analysis

Do not use this skill when

- The task is unrelated to market opportunity analysis

- You need a different domain or tool outside this scope

Instructions

- Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.

- Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.

- Provide actionable steps and verification.

- If detailed examples are required, open `resources/implementation-playbook.md`.

What This Command Does

This command guides through an interactive market sizing process to:

1. Define the target market and customer segments

2. Gather relevant market data

3. Calculate TAM using bottom-up methodology

4. Validate with top-down analysis

5. Narrow to SAM with appropriate filters

6. Estimate realistic SOM (3-5 year opportunity)

7. Present findings in a formatted report

Instructions for Claude

When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

Step 1: Gather Context

Ask the user for essential information:

- **Product/Service Description:** What problem is being solved?

- **Target Customers:** Who is the ideal customer? (industry, size, geography)

- **Business Model:** How does pricing work? (subscription, transaction, etc.)

- **Stage:** What stage is the company? (pre-launch, seed, Series A)

- **Geography:** Initial target market (US, North America, Global)

Step 2: Activate market-sizing-analysis Skill

The market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference it for:

- Bottom-up calculation frameworks

- Top-down validation approaches

- Industry-specific templates

- Data source recommendations

Step 3: Conduct Bottom-Up Analysis

**For B2B/SaaS:**

1. Define customer segments (company size, industry, use case)

2. Estimate number of companies in each segment

3. Determine average contract value (ACV) per segment

4. Calculate TAM: Σ (Segment Size × ACV)

**For Consumer/Marketplace:**

1. Define target user demographics

2. Estimate total addressable users

3. Determine average revenue per user (ARPU)

4. Calculate TAM: Total Users × ARPU × Frequency

**For Transactions/E-commerce:**

1. Estimate total transaction volume (GMV)

2. Determine take rate or margin

3. Calculate TAM: Total GMV × Take Rate

Step 4: Gather Market Data

Use available tools to research:

- **WebSearch:** Find industry reports, market size estimates, public company data

- **Cite all sources** with URLs and publication dates

- **Document assumptions** clearly

Recommended data sources (from skill):

- Government data (Census, BLS)

- Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, Statista)

- Public company filings (10-K reports)

- Trade associations

- Academic research

Step 5: Top-Down Validation

Validate bottom-up calculation:

1. Find total market category size from research

2. Apply geographic filters

3. Apply segment/product filters

4. Compare to bottom-up TAM (should be within 30%)

If variance > 30%, investigate and explain differences.

Step 6: Calculate SAM

Apply realistic filters to narrow TAM:

- **Geographic:** Regions actually serviceable

- **Product Capability:** Features needed to serve

- **Market Readiness:** Customers ready to adopt

- **Addressable Switching:** Can reach and convert

Formula:

SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Product Fit % × Market Readiness %

Step 7: Estimate SOM

Calculate realistic obtainable market share:

**Conservative Approach (Recommended):**

- Year 3: 2-3% of SAM

- Year 5: 4-6% of SAM

**Consider:**

- Competitive intensity

- Available resources (funding, team)

- Go-to-market effectiveness

- Differentiation strength

Step 8: Create