Startup Business Analyst Financial Projections

# Financial Projections

Create a comprehensive 3-5 year financial model with revenue projections, cost structure, headcount planning, cash flow analysis, and three-scenario modeling (conservative, base, optimistic) for startup financial planning and fundraising.

Use this skill when

- Working on financial projections tasks or workflows

- Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for financial projections

Do not use this skill when

- The task is unrelated to financial projections

- You need a different domain or tool outside this scope

Instructions

- Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.

- Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.

- Provide actionable steps and verification.

- If detailed examples are required, open `resources/implementation-playbook.md`.

What This Command Does

This command builds a complete financial model including:

1. Cohort-based revenue projections

2. Detailed cost structure (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A)

3. Headcount planning by role

4. Monthly cash flow analysis

5. Key metrics (CAC, LTV, burn rate, runway)

6. Three-scenario analysis

Instructions for Claude

When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

Step 1: Gather Model Inputs

Ask the user for essential information:

**Business Model:**

- Revenue model (SaaS, marketplace, transaction, etc.)

- Pricing structure (tiers, average price)

- Target customer segments

**Starting Point:**

- Current MRR/ARR (if any)

- Current customer count

- Current team size

- Current cash balance

**Growth Assumptions:**

- Expected monthly customer acquisition

- Customer retention/churn rate

- Average contract value (ACV)

- Sales cycle length

**Cost Assumptions:**

- Gross margin or COGS %

- S&M budget or CAC target

- Current burn rate (if applicable)

**Funding:**

- Planned fundraising (amount, timing)

- Pre/post-money valuation

Step 2: Activate startup-financial-modeling Skill

The startup-financial-modeling skill provides frameworks. Reference it for:

- Revenue modeling approaches

- Cost structure templates

- Headcount planning guidance

- Scenario analysis methods

Step 3: Build Revenue Model

**Use Cohort-Based Approach:**

For each month, track:

1. New customers acquired

2. Existing customers retained (apply churn)

3. Revenue per cohort (customers × ARPU)

4. Expansion revenue (upsells)

**Formula:**

MRR (Month N) = Σ across all cohorts:
  (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU) + Expansion

**Project:**

- Monthly detail for Year 1-2

- Quarterly detail for Year 3

- Annual for Years 4-5

Step 4: Model Cost Structure

Break down operating expenses:

**1. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)**

- Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed)

- Payment processing (% of revenue)

- Variable customer support

- Third-party services

Target gross margin:

- SaaS: 75-85%

- Marketplace: 60-70%

- E-commerce: 40-60%

**2. Sales & Marketing (S&M)**

- Sales team compensation

- Marketing programs

- Tools and software

- Target: 40-60% of revenue (early stage)

**3. Research & Development (R&D)**

- Engineering team

- Product management

- Design

- Target: 30-40% of revenue

**4. General & Administrative (G&A)**

- Executive team

- Finance, legal, HR

- Office and facilities

- Target: 15-25% of revenue

Step 5: Plan Headcount

Create role-by-role hiring plan:

**Reference team-composition-analysis skill for:**

- Roles by stage

- Compensation benchmarks

- Hiring velocity assumptions

**For each role:**

- Title and department

- Start date (month/quarter)

- Base salary

- Fully-loaded cost (salary × 1.3-1.4)

- Equity grant

**Track departmental ratios:**

- Engineering: 40-50% of team

- Sales & Marketing: 25-35%

- G&A: 10-15%

- Product/CS: 10-15%

Step 6: Calculate Cash Flow

Monthly cash flow projection:

Beginning Cash Balance
+ Cash Collected (revenue, consider payment terms)
- Operating Expenses
- CapEx
= Ending Cash Balance

Monthly Burn = Revenue - Expenses (if negative)
Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate

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